Premier League top scorer predictions 2026/27: Who wins the Golden Boot race?

Erling Haaland is the bookmakers’ favourite for the 2026-27 Premier League Golden Boot, with several platforms offering odds of 1.50.

While Haaland is arguably the league’s only world-class striker, Chelsea’s Joao Pedro and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak are priced at odds of 8.00 and 9.00, respectively.

Using a combination of data from previous seasons, goals, and xG, among other metrics, we’ve forecasted that Erling Haaland will win this year’s Golden Boot.

But how many goals will he need to score to win? Does Pedro, Isak, or any other selection stand a chance, and what underlying stats are useful for Premier League top scorer betting?

Premier League top scorer predictions at a glance

Who is the favourite to be the Premier League top scorer?

Erling Haalandis the clear favourite to win the 2026-27 Golden Boot, with short odds of 1.50.

The Norwegian has won the Premier League Golden Boot in 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2025-26, scoring 36, 27, and 27 goals, respectively.

If Haaland continues to score at his current rate, he’ll end the 2026-27 season with a record-breaking 38 goals, but is that realistic?

The Manchester City forward is already outperforming his xG by 0.70. In previous Premier League seasons, Haaland has outperformed his xG by an average of 1.63 goals.

His current xG of 3.3, or 0.83 per appearance, equates to an expected 31.35 goals over a 38-game season.

If Haaland outperformed that total by 1.63 goals, he’d end the season with 32.98 goals.

However, Haaland is unlikely to play in each Premier League game. In Haaland’s four previous Premier League campaigns, he’s averaged 33 appearances.

Therefore, a more conservative method of projecting Haaland’s 2026-27 goals is:

0.83 (current xG per appearance) x 33 (average number of Premier League appearances) + 1.63 (average number of goals Haaland outperforms his xG by) = 29.02.

Still, with Manchester City under new management, Haaland may accumulate more or less xG this season, while his dedication to diet and fitness may help him play more than 33 Premier League games.

Premier League Golden Boot contenders

Joao Pedro

Chelsea’s Joao Pedro is the second-favourite to win the Golden Boot with odds of 8.00.

In Pedro’s previous four full Premier League campaigns, the Brazilian has scored an average of 9.25 goals per season.

However, the 6ft1 forward’s goal tally has improved in each season, scoring three times in 2021-22, nine times in 2023-24, 10 times in 2024-25, and 15 times in 2025-26.

Pedro improves his goal tally by an average of four goals per season; if he continued that trajectory in 2026-27, he’d end the season with 19 goals.

His goal rate usually correlates closely with his xG. Over the previous four Premier League seasons, Pedro has underperformed his xG by 0.9 goals; however, he’s overperformed his xG by one goal over the last two campaigns.

Pedro plays an average of 30.25 Premier League games per season and has accumulated 0.54 xG per appearance during the 2026-27 season.

If he plays 30.25 games, accumulates 0.54 xG per appearance, and outperforms his xG by one goal per season, he’d end the campaign with a predicted total of 17.33 goals.

Alexander Isak

Alexander Isak is priced at 9.00 to win this season’s Golden Boot.

The Swede scored 21 goals in 2023-24, before notching 23 in 2024-25. However, they were the only two seasons in which Isak made more than 30 appearances.

Isak’s goal rate is harder to project than Haaland’s and Pedro’s, because there’s more variation in the total number of appearances he makes per season.

While at Newcastle, Isak played an average of 28.60 Premier League games per season, before moving to Liverpool and making just 14 appearances in his debut campaign.

If Isak played 28.6 Premier League games this season, accumulated an xG of 0.7 per game, and outperformed his total xG by 1.4 goals, the average overperformance he’s achieved over the last four Premier League seasons, he’d end the season with a predicted 21.42 goals.

So, if Isak stays injury-free, he may enjoy a 20-plus-goal season, but it’s unlikely to be enough to beat Haaland’s tally.

Cole Palmer

Cole Palmer’s Premier League top scorer odds are 26.00.

The Chelsea attacking midfielder scored 22 times in his breakthrough 2023-24 Premier League season, averaging 0.66 goals per appearance.

Since then, his form has declined slightly, scoring 27 times in his last 67 Premier League games, averaging 0.40 goals per game.

Last season, Palmer struggled with injuries and mixed form, only making 26 Premier League appearances.

However, in the two seasons beforehand, the attacking midfielder made 33 and 37 appearances in 2023-24 and 2024-25, respectively.

Despite being Chelsea’s penalty taker, Palmer has underperformed his xG by an average of 1.43 goals over the previous two seasons.

If he plays his Chelsea career average of 32 Premier League games this season, accumulates 0.3 xG per appearance, and underperforms that total by 1.43 goals, he’ll end the season with a predicted 8.17 goals.

However, Palmer is already outperforming his xG by 0.80 goals this season, having scored twice from an xG of 1.20.

To be within the Golden Boot race, he must either accumulate more xG or outperform his current total at an even higher rate.

Kai Havertz

Kai Havertz is priced at 26.00 to win the Golden Boot, but is unlikely to win the award, having never scored more than 13 goals in a Premier League season.

While the German has outperformed his xG by 1.1 goals this season, having scored twice from an xG of 0.90, it will be difficult to maintain that level of performance.

While at Arsenal, Havertz has outperformed his Premier League xG by an average of 0.2 goals per season. It may be overly optimistic to expect Havertz to be among the Premier League top scorers this season.

If the Arsenal forward plays 27.1 games, the average number of Premier League appearances he’s made per season across spells with the Gunners and Chelsea, he’ll score a predicted 6.1 goals.

This assumes he continues to accumulate 0.22 xG per appearance.

It also takes into account his average xG overperformance of 0.2 goals per season.

While Havertz has already scored twice this season, he has done so from a low volume of goal-scoring opportunities. 

The 27-year-old would need to be exceptionally clinical to be within a chance of winning this season’s Golden Boot.

What do the stats say about the Golden Boot race?

Erling Haaland leads the Premier League’s Golden Boot contenders in goals, xG, xG per 90, and shots on target per 90, as of 16 September 2026.

While Alexander Isak has made four Premier League appearances, the same as each of his main Golden Boot competitors, the Swede has a proportionately higher xG per 90, having been substituted off after 64 minutes against Ipswich.

Given Isak’s injury record, Liverpool may substitute or rest Isak in games they have a high chance of winning. This means that, even if Isak stays injury-free, he may play fewer minutes than his competitors.

Kai Havertz has outperformed his xG by 1.1 goals, the most of any Golden Boot competitor. His edge-of-the-box goal against Chelsea had an xG of 0.02; it’s statistically unlikely that the German will continue converting low-probability shots at the same rate.

Joao Pedro takes fewer shots on target per 90 and accumulates less xG per 90 than Haaland and Isak, but, after four matches, he’s converted a higher proportion of his chances.

The Chelsea forward’s xG overperformance over the previous two Premier League seasons is 1.00. 

If Pedro maintained his current xG overperformance rate across 38 games, he’d finish the season 7.60 goals above his expected total – a level of overperformance he has never previously produced.

This means he may struggle to continue overperforming his xG by as much this season unless he has significantly improved his finishing skills.

No Golden Boot contender has taken a penalty this season, although both Liverpool and Arsenal have been awarded spot-kicks, indicating that Isak and Havertz may not be the current designated penalty takers for their respective teams.

What does it take to win the Premier League Golden Boot?

We’ve looked through the 10 previous Premier League Golden Boot winners and calculated their average number of goals and appearances, as well as their team’s league position, to understand what it takes to win the top goalscorer award.

• Average number of goals: 27.1
• Average number of appearances: 34.7
• Average position of team: 2.9th place
• Years when the award was shared: 2021-22, 2018-19

Since Haaland joined the league in 2022-23, Premier League top goal scorers have found the net at least 27 goals in each season.

This season, given Haaland’s strong start to the season, it’s likely that Pedro, Isak, or any other competitor would need to score at least 27 goals to win the Golden Boot.

Team position matters as much as the goals tally. Our Premier League predictions put Haaland’s City second and Isak’s Liverpool fourth, which fits the historical profile of a Golden Boot winner. 

What could decide the 2026/27 top scorer race?

Our predictions for the 2026-27 Golden Boot award are based on previous injury records, current xG, and historic xG over/underperformance.

An unexpected injury could change our predictions entirely. For example, if Haaland spent three months on the sidelines, capping his possible number of Premier League appearances to 23, he’d be significantly less likely to win the Golden Boot.

Likewise, if Isak stays injury-free and Liverpool don’t need to manage his minutes, the £125 million player’s Golden Boot chances will increase.

Based on previous seasons, the Golden Boot winner plays an average of 34.7 games. In just two of the previous 10 campaigns, the Golden Boot winner has won the award while playing fewer than 35 matches.

While Manchester City were the 2025-26 Premier League top goalscorers and frequently create chances for Erling Haaland, the success of Chelsea’s Pedro and Palmer, Liverpool’s Isak, and Arsenal’s Havertz will be dependent on the attacking strengths of their respective teams.

In 2026-27, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea have each accumulated a total xG of between 6.5 and 6.8, showing that they have similar attacking output, while Manchester City have accumulated a total xG of 7.7.

Haaland, Isak, and Havertz may be rested in the Premier League if their respective clubs reach the latter stages of the Champions League. Chelsea aren’t competing in any European competition this season, meaning Palmer and Pedro’s minutes may not need to be managed in the same way.

Golden Boot prices move on rotation news and injuries through the season, so the price on offer at UK betting sites in September will not be the price in January. 

Our Premier League top scorer prediction

Predicted Golden Boot winner: Erling Haaland
Main challenger: Alexander Isak
Dark horse: Cole Palmer
Predicted winning goal total: 29

Regardless of whether Palmer and Pedro play all remaining Premier League games, Havertz continues to outperform his xG, or Isak remains injury-free, we predict Haaland will win the Golden Boot.

Pedro and Isak may hit 20 goals this season and be among the EPL top scorers, but those predictions are based on more variables and won’t be enough to win the Golden Boot, unless Haaland suffers his worst Premier League campaign to date.

While Palmer and Havertz have outperformed their xG in the opening four games of the season, it will be challenging for them to continue converting at the same rate, with the underlying data suggesting they’re not frequent xG overperformers.

FAQs

Who is predicted to win the Premier League Golden Boot in 2026/27?

Erling Haaland. Applying his current xG per appearance to his four-season average of 33 games, and adding the 1.63 goals he typically beats his xG by, gives a projected total of 29. Alexander Isak is the closest challenger on a projected 21.4 goals, though that assumes he stays fit for the full campaign.

Who is the favourite to be the Premier League top scorer?

Haaland, priced at 1.50. Chelsea’s Joao Pedro is the second favourite at 8.00, with Liverpool’s Alexander Isak at 9.00. Cole Palmer and Kai Havertz are both 26.00.

Who is the current Premier League top scorer?

Haaland leads the 2026/27 charts with four goals from four appearances. Pedro and Isak follow on three each. Figures are correct to the end of matchweek four.

Who won the Premier League Golden Boot last season?

Haaland, with 27 goals in 2025/26. Brentford’s Igor Thiago finished second on 22. It was Haaland’s third Golden Boot, leaving him one short of Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah.

How many goals do you need to win the Premier League Golden Boot?

The last 10 winners have averaged 27.1 goals from 34.7 appearances. Every winner since Haaland arrived in 2022/23 has hit at least 27. A challenger would need to clear that mark to beat him this season.

The post Premier League top scorer predictions 2026/27: Who wins the Golden Boot race? appeared first on European Gaming Industry News.